Attribution is broken and getting worse. Roughly a third to half of what most dashboards report as fact is modelled, and the honest version of marketing reporting says which is which on every line.
Four things degraded at once. Browser privacy controls and ITP shortened cookie lifetimes, so multi-week B2B journeys fall apart before conversion. Consent requirements mean a meaningful share of sessions is never observed at all, and platforms fill the gap with modelled conversions presented in the same font as measured ones. Dark social — a link forwarded in WhatsApp, dropped in a Slack channel, mentioned on a call — arrives as direct traffic with no referrer and no story.
And AI search referrals are the newest hole: a buyer reads about you inside ChatGPT or an AI Overview, forms an opinion, and turns up later as a branded search that your SEO report happily claims. Every platform is incentivised to over-claim, which is why the sum of channel-reported conversions routinely exceeds the number of deals you actually closed. We do not pretend to solve this. We reduce the unknown where engineering can — server-side tagging, first-party identifiers, offline conversion imports back into ad platforms, CRM-joined reporting — and then we label the rest.
Measured, modelled, or inferred, on every number. On top of that we run geo holdout tests and periodic spend pauses, because for the questions that actually matter, a controlled experiment beats an attribution model.
- Every reported number tagged measured, modelled or inferred — no modelled conversions presented as observed fact
- Server-side tagging and first-party identifiers to recover what browser-side pixels lose to privacy controls
- Offline conversion imports so ad platforms optimise toward qualified pipeline, not form fills
- Self-reported attribution on forms as a deliberate check against platform-claimed credit
- Incrementality testing — geo holdouts and structured spend pauses — for questions attribution models cannot answer
- AI search referrals tracked separately, with their known blind spots stated rather than papered over